Skip to main content

Week in Review: 3-7 March 2025

Financial Markets

The US equity market sold off again. This week the S&P500 and the NASDAQ 100 lost 1% and 3.3%, respectively. The small cap index (Russel 2000) was down 4%. Trading volumes were considerably above average, indicating that sentiment might be changing to bearish.

The metals were stronger this week. Gold and silver gained 1.8% and 4.5%, respectively. In times of fear, cash is king, and precious metals are not immune to a selloff in the next months, especially if liquidity is hindered. Gold didn't reach the 3k$ level yet, and may not get there before a pullback and/or consolidation around current levels.

WTI went down to 67$/bbl. If it continues falling, the next support levels are at 64 and 62$.

Bitcoin fell a whopping 12%, and has the next support level around 74k$.

The relative strength of the US dollar (DXY) fell massively, to 104. The EUR/USD is around 1.083$, the GBP/USD is at 1.291$, and the USD/JPY is at 148.03 JPY.

US M2 money supply at the date of 27th January 2024 was flat, which could be a bearish sign, together with the recent selloffs.

The national financial conditions index (NFCI) for the week of 24th February 2025 tightened by 2.9%, another bearish sign! Note that this indicator is delayed by a week.

US bond yields increased slightly this week, and now sit at 4.000% for the 2-year and 4.305% for the 10-year. These are below the current FED funds rate, showing that investor expectations favor a decrease in interest rates, and lower inflation.

The VIX closed the week at ~23.  If the selloffs continue, it can head to to the 28 area. Now, premiums and fear in the market are reaching a healthier level and are not subdued.


Comment Section

We are at a critical point in the markets. The uncertainty due to the US tariffs, geopolitical stress, and earnings stagnation are coming together to induce a correction in equities. Let's be careful and not rush in.

Historically, the beginning of the last recessions has coincided with the time the FED starts cutting rates. We are there. If we are going to have a recession, it should be in 2025. If we wait a few months on the sidelines, good opportunities will come.

Labels:

Comments

Post a Comment

Most Read

Week in Review: 4-8 November 2024 - Trump Wins!!!

Financial Markets For the week, the main stock market indices were UP, with the S&P500 gaining 4.7% and the NASDAQ 100 5.4% in the green. The small cap index (Russel 2000) got pumped by 8.7%. Precious metals are retracing a bit these days. Gold and silver fell 1.9% and 3.5%, respectively. Recently, silver broke below 32$ and is now probably going towards the 30$ level. WTI is around the 70$ level, which is short-term support. Oil will likely trade sideways in the near future (68-72$). Bitcoin spiked 17% this week, breaking above the 74k level. It can re-test this level again before continuing to the upside (or breaking back below!). The relative strength of the US dollar (DXY) was up by 0.6%. The EUR/USD is around 1.07$, the GBP/USD is at 1.29$, and the USD/JPY is at 152.6 JPY. US M2 money supply at the date of 30th September 2024 was up by 0.38%. The national financial conditions index (NFCI) for the week of 28th October 2024 tightened by 1.4% and doesn't transla...
Post a Comment
Read more

Week in Review: 25-29 November 2024

Financial Markets For the week, the main stock market indices were up, with the S&P500 gaining 1.1% and the NASDAQ 100 0.7% in the green. The small cap index (Russel 2000) gained 1.1%. Precious metals are on the lower range of the current trading channel. Gold and silver fell 2.4% and 2.3%, respectively. The metals need to defend the current levels, otherwise we must turn bearish. WTI fell 4.2% and is holding the 68$ level. Oil will likely trade sideways in the near future (67-72$). Bitcoin is around 97000$ and seems like it will have some trouble going above 100k... The relative strength of the US dollar (DXY) hit resistance and fell to ~106. The EUR/USD is around 1.05$, the GBP/USD is at 1.27$, and the USD/JPY is at 149.7 JPY. US M2 money supply at the date of 28th October 2024 was up by 0.42%. The national financial conditions index (NFCI) for the week of 18th November 2024 loosened by 5.1% and doesn't translate signs of financial stress in the markets. US b...
Post a Comment
Read more

Week in Review: 24-28 March 2025

Financial Markets This week the S&P500 and the NASDAQ 100 re-tested support, losing 1.5% and 2.4%, respectively. The small cap index (Russel 2000) was down by 2.3%. Trading volumes were average during the week but declined on Friday. Precious metals remain strong. Gold continues making new all-time-highs - now at 3084$/oz. Silver gained 3.3% and is going to re-test the 34-35$ level again. WTI is still close to support and went up by 1.1% to ~69$/bbl. If it continues falling, the next support levels are at 64 and 62$. Bitcoin fell 4.3%, contradicting the previous week's move. It is essentially trading sideways, like the equity market. The key resistance and support levels on Bitcoin, for the short term, are 92k$ and 72-74k$, respectively. The relative strength of the US dollar (DXY) was essentially unchanged and is still at 104. The EUR/USD is around 1.082$, the GBP/USD is at 1.294$, and the USD/JPY is at 149.82 JPY. US M2 money supply at the date of 24th February 2025 w...
Post a Comment
Read more