Skip to main content

Week in Review: 9-13 September 2024 - The FED Put!

Financial Markets

For the week, the main stock market indices were up, with the S&P500 recovering 4% and the NASDAQ 100 up 5.9%. Last week's losses were eliminated. The small cap index (Russel 2000) was 4.4% in the green.

Gold closed the week at a new all-time-high of 2577$/oz. Silver followed gold and popped 10%! We now need to see if silver holds the current levels or if it fails and returns to the 28-30$ range.

The barrel of WTI recovered 1.7% but still looks bearish.

Bitcoin followed the stock market direction, but with less enthusiasm, recovering 7.8%. It still seems likely that bitcoin will trade in the range of 53-66k$ in the following weeks.

The relative strength of the US dollar (DXY) was nearly unchanged and around 101. The EUR/USD is at 1.109$, while the USD/JPY is down to 140.8 JPY.

US M2 money supply has not been updated this week.

The national financial conditions index (NFCI) for the week of 2nd September 2024 loosened by 2.9% and doesn't translate particular signs of financial stress in the markets (this data is delayed).

US bond yields now sit at 3.584% for the 2-year and 3.655% for the 10-year. The yield curve is now uninverted and with its normal up-rising slope.

The VIX fell to the 16-17 level and showed less market fear. The VIX might rise again next week, due to the FED announcement (in case the market reaction is negative).


Comment Section

The week of the FED put has arrived.
 
A 50 bps cut could pump the markets for a few days or weeks (followed by an obvious correction), while a 25 bps could tip the markets in a downward direction a bit sooner (due to fears of recession and lack of obvious near term good news in the economy).
 
We don't try to guess. Thus, we are staying on the sidelines to see the market reaction by Wednesday and through the end of the week.

Volatility will come, and with it option premiums will increase, presenting good opportunities.

Take care, and good luck.



Recommended Videos

Video: Derivatives Expert Reveals How To Profit Huge From A Market Crash

Channel: Rebel Capitalist


 

Video: Holy SH9T! The Fed *JUST* Capitulated! [Great Reset!]

Channel: Meet Kevin



Labels:

Comments

Post a Comment

Most Read

Week in Review: 4-8 November 2024 - Trump Wins!!!

Financial Markets For the week, the main stock market indices were UP, with the S&P500 gaining 4.7% and the NASDAQ 100 5.4% in the green. The small cap index (Russel 2000) got pumped by 8.7%. Precious metals are retracing a bit these days. Gold and silver fell 1.9% and 3.5%, respectively. Recently, silver broke below 32$ and is now probably going towards the 30$ level. WTI is around the 70$ level, which is short-term support. Oil will likely trade sideways in the near future (68-72$). Bitcoin spiked 17% this week, breaking above the 74k level. It can re-test this level again before continuing to the upside (or breaking back below!). The relative strength of the US dollar (DXY) was up by 0.6%. The EUR/USD is around 1.07$, the GBP/USD is at 1.29$, and the USD/JPY is at 152.6 JPY. US M2 money supply at the date of 30th September 2024 was up by 0.38%. The national financial conditions index (NFCI) for the week of 28th October 2024 tightened by 1.4% and doesn't transla...
Post a Comment
Read more

Week in Review: 25-29 November 2024

Financial Markets For the week, the main stock market indices were up, with the S&P500 gaining 1.1% and the NASDAQ 100 0.7% in the green. The small cap index (Russel 2000) gained 1.1%. Precious metals are on the lower range of the current trading channel. Gold and silver fell 2.4% and 2.3%, respectively. The metals need to defend the current levels, otherwise we must turn bearish. WTI fell 4.2% and is holding the 68$ level. Oil will likely trade sideways in the near future (67-72$). Bitcoin is around 97000$ and seems like it will have some trouble going above 100k... The relative strength of the US dollar (DXY) hit resistance and fell to ~106. The EUR/USD is around 1.05$, the GBP/USD is at 1.27$, and the USD/JPY is at 149.7 JPY. US M2 money supply at the date of 28th October 2024 was up by 0.42%. The national financial conditions index (NFCI) for the week of 18th November 2024 loosened by 5.1% and doesn't translate signs of financial stress in the markets. US b...
Post a Comment
Read more

Week in Review: 24-28 March 2025

Financial Markets This week the S&P500 and the NASDAQ 100 re-tested support, losing 1.5% and 2.4%, respectively. The small cap index (Russel 2000) was down by 2.3%. Trading volumes were average during the week but declined on Friday. Precious metals remain strong. Gold continues making new all-time-highs - now at 3084$/oz. Silver gained 3.3% and is going to re-test the 34-35$ level again. WTI is still close to support and went up by 1.1% to ~69$/bbl. If it continues falling, the next support levels are at 64 and 62$. Bitcoin fell 4.3%, contradicting the previous week's move. It is essentially trading sideways, like the equity market. The key resistance and support levels on Bitcoin, for the short term, are 92k$ and 72-74k$, respectively. The relative strength of the US dollar (DXY) was essentially unchanged and is still at 104. The EUR/USD is around 1.082$, the GBP/USD is at 1.294$, and the USD/JPY is at 149.82 JPY. US M2 money supply at the date of 24th February 2025 w...
Post a Comment
Read more