Summary:
Another agitated week!
Liz Truss went away, together with her minibudget, due to lack of credibility.
The bond markets are stressed, with real rates increasing around the
world. The economic outlook for next year remains gloomy.
China gets its own paragraph. The BIG CCP meeting has been ongoing, and we are waiting for a digest of the policies and directions the giant will take during the next years. The president should remain for some more time. In the meanwhile, the USA can only think about doing war with China about the Taiwan independence, or escalating the war with Russia, in Ukraine soil.
The stock markets jumped up and down, but ended the week on a positive note, after the FED whisperer telling that the FED pivot is near - probably early next year we'll see no more rate hikes. The dovish pivot may be even closer if some emergency occurs in the bond market (for example).
In the near term, we may have a bit of a rally in the stock markets for some time, but it's early to predict how long and significant it will be. This will depend on the remaining of the earnings season - big names will report next week, so you should keep an eye on Mister market, and buckle up for a bumpy ride...
The FED Pivot is Around the Corner, but Inflation is Here to Stay...
Video: A Global Monetary Reset Is Here; Countries No Longer Want to Be Held Hostage, Warns Frank Giustra
Channel: Stansberry Research
Video: SPECIAL REPORT! Fed. BLINKS! Sends Stock Market SOARING! But Is It Over? By Gregory Mannarino
Channel: Gregory Mannarino
Video: Fed To Inflict Severe Damage On Markets | Michael Pento
Channel: Liberty and Finance
A Cold Winter is Coming for Europe and the World
Video: Could The UK Kick Off The Next Eurozone Crisis?
Channel: Economics Explained
Bye
Video: Liz Truss's 45 days as UK prime minister - BBC News
Channel: BBC News
War? WWIII??? Freaks!!!
Video: White House or Insane Asylum? Politicians Want War With Russia, Get Prepared for Crash
Channel: Gerald Celente
OIL
WTI crude futures rebounded to near $85 per barrel on Friday, as a weaker dollar supported greenback-priced commodities. Oil prices were little changed this week, as hopes of higher Chinese demand and output cuts by OPEC+ offset lingering fears about a potential global recession-driven demand downturn. Investors have been growing worried about a deteriorating outlook for growth amid intensifying macro headwinds, including high inflation and tighter financial conditions. Putting a floor under prices were prospects of easing coronavirus-induced restrictions and a pick in economic activity in top importer China. Meantime, OPEC and its allies, including Russia, agreed to cut production by 2 million barrels per day in November, the most significant curb since the start of the pandemic, while speculation grows that the oil cartel will further intervene in markets to shore up prices. A looming European Union ban on Russian crude also exacerbated concerns about tight supplies.
Natural Gas
US natural gas futures fell more than 25% to below $5 MMBtu this week, the 9th consecutive week of falls and the lowest level in seven months, pressured by forecasts of lower weather-driven demand, record domestic production levels, and reduced liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, allowing utilities to inject more gas into storage. The latest EIA report showed another larger-than-usual storage build last week, with US utilities adding a more than expected 111 billion cubic feet (bcf) of natural gas to storage, well above 91 bcf injected during the same week a year ago and a five-year (2017-2021) average increase of 73 bcf. Average US gas demand, including exports, is expected to fall to 94.9 bcfd next week from 100.3 bcfd this week.
US Stock Markets
Wall Street rallied after a muted start on Friday, with the Dow adding more than 700 points and both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq up around 2.4% as investors reassessed the outlook for monetary policy. The trigger for the abrupt upside move was a report from the WSJ that showed that some officials are signaling a desire to slow down the pace of the increase soon to gauge the impact of such tightening on growth. The market movement came in tandem with easing Treasury yields, which brought some respite to growth-oriented stocks. Still, volatility showed no signs of abating amid Friday’s $2 trillion options expiration. Meanwhile, a slew of negative quarterly results from corporate America capped gains. Snap crashed 28% after the company forecasted zero growth for the current quarter, triggering a selloff among other social media companies dependent on advertising revenue. All major US indices closed in the green for the week with the Dow gaining 4.9%, the S&P 4.7%, and the Nasdaq 5.8%.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin US Dollar traded at 19169 this Sunday October 23rd, decreasing 10 or 0.05 percent since the previous trading session. Looking back, over the last four weeks, Bitcoin lost 0.17 percent. Over the last 12 months, its price fell by 68.51 percent. Looking ahead, we forecast Bitcoin US Dollar to be priced at 17402 by the end of this quarter and at 12985 in one year, according to Trading Economics global macro models projections and analysts expectations.
Gold
Gold prices rose past $1,640 an ounce of Friday, rebounding from the three-week low of $1,620 hit earlier in the session and tracking the rebound for Treasury notes after the greenback pulled back from recent highs. Demand for bullion gained traction after a report from the Wall Street Journal indicated that some Federal Reserve policymakers have expressed uncertainty on whether going through with the aggressively hawkish guidance could cause overtightening. The US central bank is expected to raise its funds rate by 75bps for the fourth consecutive decision in the upcoming November meeting, extending its battle against soaring inflation. Still, gold prices remain close to the 18-month low of $1,613 hit on September 28, as the DXY’s surge increased the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing bullion. On the week, gold prices are set to close flat.
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